Cycle Reports

Every cycle produces a set of reports. Together they tell the story of what happened, what surprised the team, and whether the project is getting better at estimating work.

Effort Estimates

Every task is sized before building: XS, S, M, L, or XL. After the build completes, the builder reports the actual effort. The comparison tells you whether estimates are accurate, optimistic (consistently underestimated), or pessimistic (consistently overestimated).

You don't need perfect accuracy — the goal is to be calibrated. A team that consistently estimates M and delivers S is predictable. A team that swings between XS and XL on the same type of task needs more scoping discipline.

Surprises

Surprises capture what was differentfrom what the builder expected. Not implementation details (“used library X”), but meaningful deviations: wrong assumptions, scope changes, missing infrastructure, or dependencies that weren't apparent during planning.

Surprises are the most valuable part of the report. They feed into future planning — the next time a similar task comes up, the planner can account for the surprise. Over time, surprises should decrease as the project learns.

Velocity Trends

Velocity is tracked as effort points per cycle (XS = 1, S = 2, M = 3, L = 5, XL = 8). The dashboard shows a 5-cycle average alongside the current cycle. The trend is more useful than any single data point — it tells you whether the team is speeding up, slowing down, or holding steady.

A sudden velocity drop often signals blockers, context switches, or underestimated tasks. A sustained increase suggests the team is hitting its stride or tasks are getting easier as the foundation solidifies.

Carry-Forward Items

Not everything fits into one cycle. Carry-forward items are notes from the planner that survive across cycle boundaries — things that should be addressed soon but didn't make it into the current batch. Think of them as “deferred, not forgotten.”

Carry-forward items are reviewed at the start of every planning session. If they keep appearing cycle after cycle without being addressed, that's a signal to either prioritize them or explicitly decide they're not going to happen.